"Anchoring in Economics: A Meta-Analysis of Studies on Willingness-To-Pay and Willingness-To- Accept." Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 2021.
with Z. Maniadis and C. Sedikides
Anchoring is considered one of the most robust psychological phenomena in judgment and decision-making. Earlier studies produced strong and consistent evidence that anchoring is relevant for the elicitation of economic preferences, but subsequent studies found weaker and less consistent effects. We examined the economic significance of numerical anchoring by conducting a meta-analysis of 53 studies. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient between the anchor number and target response (in our case, Willingness-to-Pay and Willingness-to-Accept) as the primary effect size. Both fixed-effects and random effects models pointed to a moderate overall effect, smaller than the effects reported in early studies. Given some well-known limitations of our meta-analytic methodology, these results should be viewed with caution and the effect size as an upper bound. Also, metaregression analysis indicates that non-random anchors and non-laboratory experiments were associated with higher anchoring effects, whereas selling tasks and anchors incompatible with the evaluated item were associated with lower (but often non-significant) anchoring effects. The use of financial incentives did not have a discernible effect.

"Can Biased Polls Distort Electoral Results? Evidence from the Lab." European Journal of Political Economy, 2023.
with A. Boukouras, W. Jennings and Z. Maniadis
We introduce a new methodological approach for studying the effect of biased polls on election outcomes and apply it to a set of new experiments with 375 participants. Voters may observe and learn about the bias by playing multiple voting rounds. While in control conditions, polls are unbiased, in treatment conditions, participants view only poll results where a particular candidate’s vote share is the largest. This candidate is consistently elected more often in the treatments than in the controls, because biased polls robustly distort voters’ expectations about vote shares. This effect holds after eighteen election rounds, out of which the first three are practice rounds, but somewhat more weakly in our main treatment where voters are explicitly informed about the bias.

"The Account of Instability of Risk Preference: Salience Theory versus Cumulative Prospect Theory."
Salience theory is a powerful alternative to prospect theory in accounting for paradoxes of choice under risk. In risk choice settings where the majority of subjects exhibits unstable risk attitudes, we experimentally investigate the descriptive and predictive power of salience theory, and compare it with cumulative prospect theory. We find that both theories unsurprisingly outperform expected utility theory, which does not account for the instability of risk preferences and cumulative prospect theory outperforms salience theory by an insignificant margin. We attribute this small gap to the unsophisticated specification of the salience function and the substantial heterogeneity of the local thinking parameter. Salience theory captures important features of unstable risk preferences, yet further work on the functional representation of the theory is necessary to make it as applicable as cumulative prospect theory.

"Childbearing Age and the Shadow Mommy Effect on Hiring: A Large-Scale Field Experiment."
with K. Li, W. Si and Z. Xu
This study examines the shadow mommy effect—discrimination against women of prime childbearing age in the labor market. We sent 35,713 fabricated CVs to genuine job advertisements in the IT, accounting, and HR sectors across four major cities in China, accurately simulating real job-seeking conditions. Our findings reveal that women of prime childbearing age face disadvantages in the job search process, even when their maternal and marital status is not disclosed. The impact of this effect varies by occupation, firm ownership, and location. Consistent with intersectionality theory, our results suggest that employers’ decision biases are largely shaped by the intersection of gender and age perceptions. Social expectations regarding motherhood heighten concerns about the costs associated with gendered parental responsibilities, thereby driving the shadow mommy effect.

"Reciprocity in Peer Assessments."
with P. Louis, Z. Maniadis and D. Xefteris
In an experimental setup simulating peer-review (i.e. the evaluation of others' performance in work environments), we investigate the impact of reciprocity. Our formal model predicts that in sequential assessment settings, reciprocal behaviour prompts agents to systematically over-report. A series of online experiments substantiate this prediction, revealing that the conduct of first movers diverges markedly from truthful reporting, leaning distinctly towards maximal over-reporting. Notably, this tendency weakens in conditions simulating anonymous/simultaneous interactions, indicating that the structure of peer-reviewing is key to ensuring the integrity of the system.

"Thermal Indices for Assessing the Impact of Outdoor Thermal Environments on Human Health: A Systematic Review of Observational Studies."
with K. Pantavou, A. Fillon, Z. Maniadis, and G. Nikolopoulos
Background The global rise in temperatures contributes to the increase of climate-sensitive diseases. Despite mitigation efforts, temperatures are projected to keep rising, highlighting the need for integrated methods to assess the impact of thermal environments on human health. Thermal indices quantify the effects of environment on health by considering various meteorological factors. This study summarizes the existing evidence on the association between thermal indices and health outcomes.
Methods Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science were systematically searched from inception until December, 2023 for observational studies examining the association between thermal indices and health outcomes in outdoor environments (protocol registration: PROSPERO CRD42023412470). Quality was assessed using the NIH Quality Assessment Tool.
Findings The search identified 5034 records, with 310 meeting eligibility criteria and examining 1143 associations. These associations represented 51 countries, primarily in North America (n=448, 39.2%) and Europe (n=399, 34.9%). Temperate climates (n=597, 52.2%) and warm thermal conditions (n=547, 47.9%) were the most frequently examined. Seventeen indices were identified, with Apparent Temperature being the most common (141 publications, 634 associations). Frequently used indices included also Heat Index (n=60), Universal Thermal Climate Index (n=42), and Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (n=39). About half of the associations focused on mortality (n=602, 52.7%) and half on morbidity (n=541, 47.3%) covering 18 categories of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11). The most frequently examined associations were for diseases of the circulatory system (n=304, 26.6%), all- cause morbidity/mortality (n=288, 25.2%), and diseases of the respiratory system (n=151, 13.2%). Among warm thermal conditions (n=882), 57.8% (n=510) suggested an increased risk of adverse health outcomes as indices increased, while in cool conditions (n=367), 44.1% (n=162) suggested an increased risk as indices decreased.
Interpretation This systematic review reveals significant associations between thermal indices and health outcomes, indicating that thermal indices could be valuable tools for public health planning. However, the diversity in methodologies across studies highlights the need for standardization.
Funding This work was conducted in the context of “SInnoPSis” project funded by the Horizon 2020 under grant agreement ID: 857636

"Reward vs Punishment in Collective Action: A Lab-in-the-Field Experiment in China’s Pastoral Area" - manuscript under preparation
with M. Liu, P. Liu and J. Wang

"Preference-Identification in Retail Investment Decisions" - experimental design finished
with N. Hanakai, E. Lykopoulos and D. Sonsino

"Naive Herding and House Prices" - experimental design finished
with M. Baddeley and J. Zhang

"Strategic Misreporting in a Committee" - experimental design in progress
with Z. Maniadis

"How Do Biases in Opinion Polls Affect Elections in Costly Voting Environments?" - experimental design in progress
with A. Boukouras, Z. Maniadis and D. Xefteris